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Outlook for Victoria tourism shows a little promise - Feb. 20-2004

Greater Victoria's tourism industry will be "less bad" in 2004, predicts an industry consultant.

Frank Bourree of Grant Thornton LLP delivered that forecast in a light-hearted way as he looked back on a roller-coaster tourism year in 2003 and said he's optimistic for this year.

"It has been wild and crazy," he told an audience of 220 at a Thursday tourism industry meeting presented by Grant Thornton, a Victoria accounting and management consultant firm. "I don't think we have ever faced as many challenges in the industry."

Bourree's hopeful view for 2004 is shared by Tourism Victoria and Tourism BC officials, who are predicting growing revenue and more visitors. They figure odds are in their favour -- after all, who could have predicted last year would have had so many disasters?

Potential visitors stayed close to home when faced with fears of SARS, mad cow disease and continuing unsettled international issues leading to security fears by travellers. Wildfires swept through parts of B.C. and the rising value of the Canadian dollar also impacted the industry.

Preliminary numbers for B.C. in 2003 show $8.9 billion in tourism expenditures, down from more than $9 billion in 2002. The province had 21.9 million overnight visitors, a drop from close to 22.6 million in 2002.

In the past year, Victoria's hotel occupancy rate dropped by 1.1 per cent to 62.7 from 63.8 per cent in 2002. Our region fared better than many other places, Bourree said. Toronto, for example, where SARS fears spiked, dropped 9.2 per cent. "We have done actually quite well."

Local hotels were hit with lower room rates. Last year's average came in at $117, from $121 in 2002. "That hurt," Bourree said.

Bourree points to what he calls a ray of sunshine: "Our industry is finally starting to get some attention as an economic driver." Other good news include plans for a record 139 cruise ships to Victoria this year. "Hopefully we will be able to sustain that," he said.

Greater Victoria will also see an increase in the number of high-end hotel rooms when new projects such as the Victoria Marriott Inner Harbour, with 236 rooms, and the Brentwood Bay Lodge and Spa, with 33 rooms, open up.

Another major luxury development on Pender Island, Poet's Cove, also has a spring opening and adds allure to the region.

"I hope this does not cause a rate war among the hoteliers," said Bourree, adding that kind of competition is not needed in this market.

He expects the room supply in the lower end of the hotel market to drop as some buildings are converted to residential use. Global tourism trends include continuing concerns over safety, security and health. Travellers are taking shorter and more frequent trips. More visitors are using the Internet to plan and book travel, Bourree said.

Customer loyalty is a thing of the past as savvy shoppers surf the Internet to find the lowest prices. The demand for cultural tourism is increasing as is the desire by visitors to choose an experience, such as wine tours.

Lorne Whyte, Tourism Victoria's chief executive officer, is forecasting overnight tourism revenues in this area will reach $1.12 billion this year, up from $1.05 billion in 2003. Overnight visitor numbers are almost three percent from last year's 3.65 million.

"This year is all about increasing market share and demand," Whyte said.

Whyte expects that this year's 100th anniversary of Butchart Gardens and the Royal B.C. Museum's Eternal Egypt exhibition will be blockbusters drawing in visitors.

Rod Harris, Tourism BC chief executive officer, is betting on a better year than last by predicting the province will see 22.5 million overnight visitors and take in $9.4 billion in revenue from overnight stays. "We are hopeful that we will see some bounce-back in gains out of the North American market," he said.

The North America tourism market, covering Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, is expected to create revenues of $7.88 billion, up 4.6 per cent from last year. Optimism also surrounds the Asia-Pacific market, which Harris predicts will reach $843 million in overnight visitor revenue this year, up 10.5 per cent from last year.

Europe is also expected to bring more business here. Forecasts estimate $610 million worth of overnight stays, up 4.7 per cent from 2002.
 

© Copyright 2004 Times Colonist (Victoria)
reprinted with permission
Story Credit: Carla Wilson

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